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Boeing India President Dinesh Keskar says that
according to his company’s estimates, India
will witness a steady growth in civil aviation
due to the rising incomes, people’s urge
to travel, India’s growing economy and the
resulting demand for international travel.
However, with two out of every three passengers
opting to travel on a low cost airline in India,
the period till 2031 will also witness further
growth of budget airlines.
Cargo traffic will also rise steadily, Keskar
said while releasing the annual Boeing’s
Commercial Aviation Market Outlook for the next
20 years.
“Robust growth with new economic prosperity
amongst a massive Indian population, discretionary
incomes, business progress and access to airports
will increase airplane demand,” Keskar said
adding: “In 2011, the economy continues to
do well. Indian air carriers are becoming profitable
and we expect the GDP to maintain its upward trend
in the long-term. As a result, both the air travel
and air cargo markets will grow.”
He also highlighted the test flight of Boeing
787 to New Delhi and Mumbai, and then direct to
New York to demonstrate the viability of the next-gen
aviation technologies. Japan’s All Nippon
Airways is the first to buy this aircraft, and
Air India will get its first Dreamliner in the
last quarter of this year.
Air India has ordered 27 new 787 Dreamliners
for its long haul routes to ferry passengers direct
from India to faraway destinations in the US and
Canada. The aircraft is supposed to save a massive
20 per cent per seat mile per passenger, something
which can swing the economies of most airlines
using it.
Jet Airways has also ordered 10 787s, and the
delivery of its first aircraft would be in 2014.
The arrival of the Boeing 787 in both the Indian
cities, a couple of days after the release of
the outlook, was accorded a great welcome. The
test flight was part of the operational validation
procedures by the US Federal Aviation Authority
(FAA), without whose clearance the aircraft cannot
be put into use.
Keskar observed that globally, Boeing forecast
a $US 4 trillion market for new aircraft over
the next 20 years with a significant increase
in deliveries. The company saw a market for 33,500
new passenger airplanes and freighters between
2011 and 2030.
Passenger traffic internationally is expected
to grow at 5.1 percent annual rate over the long-term
and the world fleet is expected to double by 2030,
he said, adding.
As for India, Keskar informed that passenger
traffic, which has reached 53.6 million domestic
(fiscal 2011) and 13.1 million international,
is expected to grow at 8.1 percent annually over
the long-term. “The economic and air traffic
growth will in turn stimulate demand for a variety
of aircraft types,” he said.
“The need is great for new airplanes that
can efficiently and profitably fly short and long-haul
routes. This demand is driven by growth in developing
and emerging cities, demand from low-cost carriers
and the need to replace an aging fleet.”
Keskar said the strongest demand will be for
single-aisle aircraft. He predicted that airlines
in India will grow by responding to passenger
preference for more flight choices, lower fares
and direct access to a wider range of destinations.
Linking of small cities to both metropolises and
other small cities is the demand of the day. Air
carriers will focus on offering more flights using
more efficient airplanes instead of significantly
larger airplanes.
Boeing airplanes currently dominate India’s
long-haul international fleet, with 777s and 747s
in service, soon to be joined by the 787 Dreamliner.
“The super-efficient 787 will offer significant
economic improvement for airlines, increased comfort
for passengers and better environmental performance,”
Keskar said.
“81 per cent of the demand and two-thirds
of the total value would be for single-aisle planes
in the market. Double-aisle planes will command
16 per cent of the demand space and three percent
by regional jets. And this where the Dreamliner
fits in,” he informed.
As for training of pilots for the Boeing 787,
Keskar said,“The training of Air India pilots
would begin next month. Intensive discussions
have been held with the airline and the Directorate
General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) on the training
programme and type-rating of trained pilots.
”Not willing to comment on controversy with
Air India because of the delay in delivery, Keskar
said: “Air India will forgive us once they
get the delivery, because the airplane will be
a delight in terms of fuel efficiency, operational
efficiency and cost effectiveness. If Air India
is looking for a turnaround, Boeing aircraft are
the answer. They can open new long-haul routes
and operate with the highest efficiency without
bothering about maintenance.”
Commenting on the share of the future growth
Boeing is expecting from India, he said that Boeing
products are well-entrenched in the Indian market
for decades and are hopeful of gaining a major
share of the future demand for new aircraft.
Boeing is upbeat about the Asia-Pacific market
of aircraft. Out of 33,500 planes the world over,
this region has 11,450 and of a global market
value of USD 4060 billion, the region has a market
value of USD 1510 billion, he informed.
Keskar also said that the much awaited setting
up of the MRO at Nagpur with Air India has begun
and that the contract was signed with infrastructure
major L&T in December 2010. The construction
to complete it should take about two to three
years, a year or so to get all equipment in place
and then some time for the DGCA to give its clearance.
This means that it will take nearly five years
for the MRO to become operative.
Incidentally, according to DGCA, passenger traffic
rose by 18 per cent in the first five months of
2011 to 24.5 million.
Keskar said that economic liberalisation in the
recent years had significantly expanded the aviation
industry in India and that market forces had led
to some consolidation.
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