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The Nuclear Deal and the Hullabaloo

 
By Ambassador Rajiv DograPublished : October 2008
 
 
 

New Delhi. Now that the nuclear deal is done, one wonders what the noise was about, So much passion, such vast amount of energy and acres of newspaper space was spent on dissecting the whys of a deal that most people now say is in everyone’s’ interest.

If that indeed is the case then we should not mind the time and the resources spent in debating the deal. Debate after all is the essence of democracy. But what is definitely regrettable is the time lost and the opportunities that were missed in the meanwhile. For 34 years, from 1974 onwards, India was excluded from the civilian use nuclear technology and trade in related materials.

At some point the exclusionists consisting of US and its partners in the NSG must ask themselves the question whether the denial was wise? Wasn’t the world a loser in many ways by depriving a fifth of its population the possibility of using a clean source of energy?

Particularly when the proliferators flourished, right under Washington’s eyes and years, as in Pakistan.

It was not only the Indian intelligence which reported in 1987 that Pakistan was weaponising but also Washington’s own CIA. It was a different matter that the political leadership chose to ignore that ominous development.

Pakistan, North Korea and increasingly Iran did exactly as they pleased. And China did not scrounge on its support, especially to Pakistan. Someday, when the full extent of such proliferation would be known, a complete stocktaking of the NSG’s wisdom would then become possible. Right now we must engage with the present, and peer through the doors that the nuclear deal has slid open.

It is time really to look at the big picture, and flag the contours of engagement.

The US Chamber of Commerce had its finger on the pulse of commercial possibilities when it declared in early September, “A modest share of the potential $150 billion business could support 250,000 high technology American jobs.”

The US Under Secretary for Political Affairs William Burns must have had the more immediate horizon in mind when he said: “Even two of these reactor contracts could add 3000 to 5000 new jobs and about 10,000 to 15,000 indirect jobs.”

While these are good enough reasons by themselves, the nuclear deal is much more than a matter of trade figures.

In the ultimate analysis it is a game changing pact that opens up new strategic and economic opportunities which could benefit the wider world in the years to come.

For a start it has veered both India and US away from the relationship of suspicion to one of engagement.

With the political antennas no longer in a mode of mutual wariness, communications at all levels are beginning to be smoother and the areas of cooperation are becoming more readily identifiable and achievable. Already, there are signs of beneficial consultations on Afghanistan, involving India in a larger role.

After all, peace in Afghanistan is imperative for India, which actually wants peace all around its neighbourhood for the simple reason that that is the fundamental requirement for its own economic growth. And of course, for similar growth in South Asia that would be good for the region.

As its trade and economic profile grows, India may also be expected to play a larger role beyond the bounds of South Asia. It could for instance more actively engage with others in protecting the vital sealanes.

At a more practical level, Indians and Americans are already proving to themselves on a regular basis the advantages of working together in the field of Information Technology.

As trust and understanding increase incrementally, much greater possibilities are bound to emerge in other high-technology areas like space. Even in the nuclear field, the US and indeed many others could benefit from experiments with new technology in India as more and more nuclear plants are constructed here.

It must be remembered that the US has not set up a nuclear plant for the past many years now. By engaging with India in new green field projects, it too could benefit technologically as engineers devise more efficient systems.

Defence is another area where the glue of mutual benefits is likely to bond the two ever more closely in the years to come.

The service to service contacts are on an increase. Joint exercises have revealed that there is a lot that can be learnt by both the sides tactically and strategically, especially in the unexpected challenges of unconventional warfare and terrorism.

But there is great scope even in the larger context. Obviously the defence purchases from US and other Western sources are bound to grow in volume and value in the coming years. This is natural.

India has had solid relations with Russia in this field. While to an extent, centrifugal forces emanating from the Soviet Union adversely affected India’s largely Soviet-supplied military inventory, Russia has to blame itself for its tardiness in keeping that oiled as a successor to that legacy. Most of the equipment with Indian forces is old – outdated in some cases – and that has led to a worldwide invitation for its upgradation or replacement.

It should be a warning lesson for existing and emerging relationships.

On the Indo-US front, that both sides stand to gain is obvious from just one example: the US has found that its overwhelming reliance on high-technology weapons in Iraq and Afghanistan has not been the success that it had hoped. The human factor, the empathy and the feel for the local has to be factored in. This is a message that intuitively figures in the Indian army’s battle calculus. Therefore, combined, technology and ingenuity can be a formidable combination.

In some cases, US troops are implementing lessons in Iraq that they have learnt from the Indian Army’s Sadbhavna or goodwill projects along the borders.

At yet another plane, and coming back to the deal, if we leave aside the hyperbole and look beyond the sloganeering of win-win, it will strike any observer as natural if the businessmen of the two countries begin to gravitate towards more joint ventures. And this trend need not be restricted to only one bilateral relationship.

As a matter of fact the emerging pattern of relationships could well be based on a foundation of work that concentrates on greater energy diversity, increased access to technology both ways, and a deeper strategic engagement.

Early in October this year, Senator Dick Lugar had put this objective succinctly when he said, “The bottom line is that the American efforts to shape the world are unlikely to succeed fully without the cooperation of India. Its sheer size ensures that it will have an enormous impact on the global economy.”

It was gracious of the Senator to have been so generous in his comments.

Nonetheless, this recognition is perhaps also the most significant achievement of the deal.

(The writer is a career diplomat and a former Ambassador of India to Italy).

 
  © India Strategic 
   
   
 
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