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The Delhi dialogue was opened by India’s External
Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid and the Secretary
General of the ASEAN Le Luong Minih. Both speakers
covered the traditional and nontraditional security
threats, global energy markets and the need for
sustainable development through renewable energy
linked to climate change, and the need for expanding
land, sea and air connectivity and opportunities
in the North East of India. The Delhi Dialogue
was organised by MEA’s Sanjay Singh, Secretary
(East) with FICCI (Federation of Indian Chambers
of Commerce and Industries) and ICWA (Indian Council
of World Affairs) and focused on the security
issues in the region in one lead session chaired
by Deputy NSA Latha Reddy. The speakers from ASEAN
region were Prof Kanti P. Bajpai from NUS Singapore,
Prof Rommel Banlaoi from Manila, Dr K Balakrishnan
from Malaysia and Dr Evi Fitriani of Phillipines
who explained their nation’s views and stated
that the stance of ASEAN is to get China to adhere
to the Declaration of Code of Conduct (CoC) in
the South China Seas dispute. The other sessions
at the Delhi Dialogue were devoted to social and
economic issues.
The NMF seminar that followed was entirely devoted
to security issues and was inaugurated by the
Chief of Naval Staff Admiral DK Joshi. The CNS
touched on the changing maritime security environment
and security strategy of nations in the East which
is getting enmeshed for stability and the need
to safeguard freedom to navigate the seas with
India’s need for stable South China Seas for trade.
Joshi emphasised the shared concerns at a time
when, national borders and Westphalia constructs
of sovereignty at sea are being challenged. He
highlighted the Indian Navy’s excellent record
in anti-piracy patrols in the Horn of Africa with
statistics. The NMF’s two day seminar witnessed
presentations by Chinese, Japanese, Philippine,
Australian, Indonesian, Maldivian and Indian experts
and Indian diplomats who had served in the East.
Most displayed concern over Chinese aggressiveness
in the South China Sea, which was defended by
the Chinese speaker.
The Proceedings of the
Delhi Dialogue And NMF Seminar
The speakers from ASEAN at the Delhi Dialogue’s
plenary session titled India- ASEAN Security Co-operation,
‘Towards Peace and Stability’ looked to India’s
greater involvement in the region and politely
questioned what steps India had taken on the 2012
Delhi Dialogue which was on the theme ‘Partners
for Peace, Progress and Stability’, and looked
to India to take a more pro-active role in security
partnerships and define the terms of partnerships.
Indonesia and Vietnam suggested greater partnership
in the maritime domain in the South China Sea
where India has interests for oil exploration.
India’s ONGC Videsh has successfully exploited
energy blocks in Vietnam with Viet Petro and has
turned in profits.
What emerged from both conferences during the
security dialogues was the similarity in the discussions
by speakers on the volatile claims in the South
China Sea, the vulnerability of the Malacca Straits
to closure, the safety of Sea Lines of Communications
(SLOCs) for trade and the need for unhindered
navigation as per UNCLOS (1982). China’s String
of Pearls, ostensibly a move by China to seek
forward friendly ports in the Indian Ocean region
figured in relation to the recent Chinese move
of taking over the operations of the Gwadar port
by China Overseas Ports Ltd in Pakistan, China
having earlier built Gwadar with aid, like the
port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. Indian speakers
referred to the China-Pakistan close links.
The shift of US forces towards the Asia Pacific
region in what is dubbed as the ‘Pivot of USA’
was discussed. It was accepted that the pivot
is a major geopolitical and geo-strategic development
that would shape the regional security environment.
The debate on what the ‘Pivot’ is aimed at, attracted
varied views and it appeared that it is aimed
at the show of Chinese assertiveness in the East
at a time when China has enhanced its military
and maritime power projection capabilities, and
set off varied reactions among China’s neighbours.
China it is well known, has made forceful ‘history
based claims’ over the Senkaku ( Diaoyu) islands
over Japan; over Vietnam in areas of the Paracel
Islands, and over Philippines in areas in the
Spratley group of islands in the Indo-Pacific.
The fear of closing of the Malacca Straits for
shipping called the ‘Malacca dilemma’, came out
as a grave worry for China and alternate sea routes
like the deeper Sunda and Lombok straits and land
route options for China were discussed.
The concerns of ASEAN were addressed throughout
the seminar. Dr Hong Nong the Deputy Director
from the National Institute for South China Sea
Studies. Beijing, defended China’s point of view
in her presentation. Dr Nong analysed the Chinese
position in a session titled ‘The Indo Pacific
Region –The Larger Picture’ with a presentation
titled ‘Maritime Geo- Politics in the Indo-Pacific’.
He relied on historical data and need for EEZ
discussions and attempted to prove China’s claims
were not all of the ‘Nine Dotted Line’ but that
was the base line for discussions and islands
that are habituated need to be ascertained. Cleo
Paskal from Chatham House looked at the Geo-political,
Geo-Economic and Geo-Physical changes in the Indo-
Pacific. Tomoko Kiyota from Takushuko University
Tokyo currently teaching International relations
at Manipal gave a laudable presentation why Japan
will not give in to China’s claims on Senkaku
islands. Dr Hasjim Djalal from Indonesia explained
the ASEAN’s Declaration of Code of Conduct adopted
to solve the South China Sea challenges and its
legal and current status. He was emphatic that
China has signed the CoC with ASEAN, but stated
China has interpreted it as signed with the nations
of ASEAN for discussing delineation on individual
nation basis. Many eye brows were raised.
Captain Justin Jones from Australia gave another
view from ‘down under’, making the discussions
wide ranging by bringing in President Obama’s
2012 ‘Strategic Guidance speech’, which had grabbed
imaginations world over as it contained redefined
terms of USA’s foreign and strategic policy which
includes rebalancing and withdrawal from Afghanistan
and cuts. The many speakers from India which included
Ambassadors Leela Ponappa, and HK Singh, Raja
Menon, Dr Vijay Sakhuja, Dr Mohan Guruswamy on
energy issues, Dr Anand Virmani on economic issues,
Uday Bhaskar among others touched on India’s concerns
as 50% of India’s trade transits the South China
Seas and the Malacca Straits. Col Ibrahim Hilmy
from Maldives spoke on piracy but the fluid situation
in that strategic island state with impending
elections and Chinese and Indian interests aroused
more questions, than answers. Rear Admiral PADR
Perera spoke on the humanitarian effort of rehabilitation
in Sri Lanka and Rear Admiral WHO Teuteberg from
South Africa spoke of collaborative steps.
The Indo-Pacific Debate
and the South China Sea Disputes
The term Indo-Pacific region was debated at both
conferences and at the NMF seminar Capt Justin
Jones Director of Australia’s Sea Power Centre
discussed the practicalities and possibilities
of the US pivot and what Indo-Pacific means for
the region. There was consensus that the region
has been so defined because it is geopolitically
unique in the sense that many countries in the
region consider the seas in the region to be vital
for their well being since ancient times. The
peoples in the region have always enjoyed the
fruits of trade through these seas that connect
the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, and holds the
most vital sea lines of communications. That factor
has not changed and the seas remain indispensable
for the safety and prosperity of the India-Asia-Pacific
region, but disputes over maritime boundaries
especially by China which claims , ‘The 9 dot
Line’ in the South China sea has the potential
for conflict over oil and gas deposits and over
living and non living resources.
While the countries in the region are enjoying
economic growth, the maritime security in the
region has become increasingly important. For
those countries which benefit greatly from maritime
trade, maintaining stability and order at sea
has certainly become a critical issue. In the
Indo- Pacific region, where Europe and Asia cross;
it is a matter of significance not only for the
countries of the region but also for the whole
international community.
The sources of tension in the South China Sea
is that the maritime claims of the claimant state
China appear ambiguous and at times inconsistent
with UNCLOS as China has not brought its maritime
claims into strict conformity with UNCLOS and
has not clarified the areas of overlapping maritime
claims for mutual delineation, but drawn a nine
dotted line on historical perspectives. This would
set the stage for negotiations between the concerned
claimant States to attempt to reach provisional
arrangements for joint development agreements
in the overlapping claim areas.
The China Japan Dispute
China’s actions to claim the Senkaku/ Diaoyu
islands which have been taken over by Japan was
presented by Tomoko Kiyota as an important issue
for Japanese security and titled her paper as
Shinzo Abe’s ‘Security Diamond and Strategy in
Broader Asia’, and debated the actions that Japan
could take short of war. The claims by China have
led to an overall increase in military assertiveness
by China with deployment of warships and aircraft
in the area where Taiwan too has claims, though
China and Taiwan’s claims are being harmonised
as suggested by some speakers. China’s strident
actions have recently resulted in a major increase
in funding for the Japan Self-Defense Forces and
Coast Guard. Japan has reiterated the centrality
of the Japan-US alliance for Asian security and
warned that China could lose Japanese and other
foreign investments if it continued to use “coercion
or intimidation” towards its neighbors along the
East and South China Seas. Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe has warned Beijing that Tokyo is losing
patience with China’s assertive maritime “coercion
or intimidation” behavior in the East and South
China seas, suggesting China consider the economic
and military consequences of its actions. Abe’s
warnings were supported by Washington that its
patience with China is wearing thin and also warned
China on its continued cyber espionage attempts.
Conclusion
In Conclusion it can be said that the maritime
boundary disputes between China and a number of
Southeast Asian countries have given rise to conflicts
over living and non-living resources, particularly
oil and natural gas deposits in the South China
Sea region and the outcome is uncertain. Concerns
over the safety and security of shipping lanes
in the South China Sea have further vitiated the
security environment in the region.
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