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Moscow. The introduction of the RS-24 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
(ICBM) in 2009 will be the most important phase in the renewal of the Russian
Strategic Missile Force (SMF) after the adoption of the Topol-M.
For the first time in post-Soviet Russia, a new ground-based MIRV equipped missile
system will be adopted by Russia’s military. There is little information
on the performance of the new RS-24. According to the most reliable sources, this
missile, developed by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology like the Topol-M,
is in fact a further development of the latter, with an improved third stage and
dispensing mechanism, the so-called “bus,” from the RSM-56 Bulava ICBM. The
new missile should have a range of 11,000 km or more, and the warheads are most
likely to have a yield of between 150 and 300 kilotons each. The RS-24 will hold
an interposition between the Topol-M with a 550-kiloton single warhead, though
in the future it could be tipped with three individually targeted warheads with
a yield between 150 and 300 kilotons, and heavy lift launch vehicles RS-20 Voevoda,
carrying up to 10 warheads, 750 kilotons each. The RS-24 is therefore likely
to be comparable in performance with the silo-based liquid-fueled UR-100 NUTTH. Aside
from the warheads, the RS-24 carries missile defense penetration systems, hindering
enemy detection and interception, which makes the new missile a valuable asset
amid the deployment of U.S. global missile defense. Like the Topol-M, the
RS-24 could be specified in either a silo-based or a mobile version, which would
increase the Russian SMF’s versatility. With the current production
capacity, by the beginning of the next decade, up to 15 ICBMs, including five
to six RS-24s, could be delivered to the military annually, keeping the ICBM numbers
at the required level. With the RS-24 entering service, the structure of
the Russian SMF in the coming decade looks clear. Along with the Topol-M, the
new missile will form the backbone of the SMF, their number totaling up to 250
and 60, respectively, by the end of the next decade. Additionally, by 2020, several
dozens of Topol and UR-100 NUTTH ICBMs will remain in service. A new heavy
missile is also expected to replace the RS-20 Voevoda ICBM. All in all, the SMF
would include about 300 to 350 missiles of various types with 800 warheads. The
backbone of the Naval Strategic Nuclear Force will be liquid-fueled RSM-54 Sineva
ICBMs, installed on six 667BDRM nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines,
which will have their life cycle extended into late 2020s, and cutting-edge solid-fuel
RSM-56 Bulava ICBMs on 955/955À submarines. The navy plans to commission
eight missile submarines of the abovementioned class to replace the 667BDR submarines.
By 2020, the Russian navy will most likely have between 12 and 14 nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarines carrying between 192 and 224 missiles with 800 to
900 warheads. Strategic aviation will go on with the employment of the Tu-95MS
and Tu-160 bombers, as the new advanced strategic bomber will not enter service
before 2020. The balance in bombers class numbers is likely to change, however,
with Tu-95s down to between 40 and 48 from the current 68, and Tu-160 up to between
22 and 24 from the current 16. Therefore, before the end of the next decade,
the total potential of Russia’s nuclear triad is estimated to be between
1,600 and 1,900 warheads. Is it a big figure? On the one hand, with the given
deployment of U.S. missile defenses, this number of warheads doesn’t seem
so. On the other hand, the rapidly increased defense penetration capability of
Russian nuclear weapons will make this inventory sufficient to inflict unacceptable
damage to an attacker, whoever it may be. (The author
is RIA Novosti’s military affairs analyst). | 
