| In
the first decade of 21st century, Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is witnessing sweeping
changes and considerable turbulence. It is humming with commercial and military
activity with unbelievable economic growth based on trade over the sea. These
oceans have always been central to Indian economy, prosperity and indeed her freedom,
and remains so even today. However, vulnerability of this very trade to disruption
is drawing both regional as well as extra-regional players into IOR. Geopolitical
theorists have highlighted the importance of geography in determination of foreign
policy considerations such as the acquisition of natural boundaries, access to
important sea routes, and the control of strategically important land areas. IOR
stretches from Suez Canal in the west to the Strait of Malacca in the east and
is restricted by choke points on either ends. Indian peninsula juts into this
strategically important space of IOR and overlooks the maritime activities across
it. In the words of Nehru – It is so situated that she is the pivot of Western,
Southern and Southeast Asia and enjoys a strategic centrality of vital geo-strategic,
economic, and energy network. Being contiguous to gulf region, resources as well
as commercial cargo have to pass through the busiest international shipping lanes
close to India. Security of this trade and the energy flow and their vulnerability
to disruptions are a potent source of conflict in the region. IOR therefore continues
to be strategically significant on account of SLOCs and remains a critical global
economic hub. IOR has always been a vortex of global turmoil with historical
fault lines in territorial and other disputes. Given the fast changing developments
across Asia the security scenario today remains same and is no different from
the past. The level of political stability, governance, ethnic and sectarian tensions,
demographic stresses and differing pace of economic growth create a mix of opportunities
and risks in the region. According to estimates, the region has almost half the
world’s energy and other natural resources. The spiralling demand for energy
from the ‘energy demand heartland’ of Asia has made the geo-strategic
environment of IOR volatile. A scan of evolving geopolitical environment
indicates that most countries present numerous security challenges. “Problems
abound across the globe… The world is witnessing a highly disruptive form
of geopolitics, one characterised by fundamental global changes of a nature not
seen since the breakup of the Warsaw Pact and the collapse of the Soviet Union”.
The gulf region, located on the cross roads of the three continents ie Africa,
Asia and Europe remains one of the most volatile region. Iraq and Afghanistan
remain critical and present challenges with spill over effect into the maritime
domain. Piracy, considered a 17th century problem, has once again raised its ugly
head in the 21st century. Pakistan seems to be disintegrating and its army
remains an extra constitutional authority. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal are
facing extreme internal pressures from political instability with its spill over
effect. Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia too face unsettled situations. The
global situation today also indicates that the international relations are in
a state of dynamic transition from a uni-polar to multi-polarity. Along with the
US maintaining its unipolar status, newer centres of influence are emerging that
will be relevant. Current trends indicate that an assertive China, developing
India and the US will remain major players in the future security architecture
of IOR. China is increasing its influence, dominance and the reach in IOR
as over 70 per cent of its energy pass through these SLOCs and choke points. Its
claims in South China Seas (SCS) is an area of concern. Construction of airstrip
and other installations at Paracel and Spratly Islands will further increase the
geopolitical tensions in Asia. China has become more confident, is assertive and
not inclined to bow to pressures. As a long term perspective it wants presence
in the Indian Ocean and that is the reason for the ‘String of Pearls”. Territorial
dispute with China is a reality that India has to deal with and China will remain
India’s greatest strategic challenge. At the same time, India’s relations
with China have been growing in many ways in positive direction. India is actively
engaged with China to foster closer economic and cultural ties, while working
on resolving border issues. India should be watchful of Chinese development in
IOR and militarisation of ‘String of Pearls’. The US has significantly
enhanced its military deployment and has become a major player in the region.
China will remain its biggest challenge as it is concerned over the extent of
US initiatives and its effect on the regional balance of power. US is avoiding
confrontation by engaging China in strategic and economic terms but competition
and confrontation will be a part of this relationship. In Southeast Asia,
China has tied its neighbours in a web of economic activity. However, these countries
are alarmed by china’s unilateral actions in SCS. In view of these volatile
issues, SE Asia is looking at India as an alternate heavy weight. Indian attempt
to expand its footprints in SCS region by forging closer relations with Vietnam
is a step in right direction to protect its strategic interests in the region. US
and Japan are strengthening their military alliance and enhancing operational
integration. There is a major shift in Japan’s strategy and it is asserting
itself in the region by redrafting its military strategy, as its dispute with
China continues. Australia on the other hand accepts rise of China and is looking
at opportunities in it but it also supports US rebalancing. South Korea is looking
at cooperative mechanisms because of military standoff with North Korean and the
Chinese hegemony. Therefore the balance of power in IOR is marked by the
priorities of US, China and India. However, the emerging trends indicate that
India is the biggest stakeholder and any instability in IOR could impact its national
security. Why so? Due to its geographic location and the growth trajectory,
India occupies a strategic location in the turbulent IOR. India has a self interest
in the security of this geostrategic maritime area as its long coastline, well-endowed
EEZ (Exclusive Economy Zone), foreign trade over sea and the offshore installations
need protection. Piracy, smuggling, illegal fishing, sea level rising, natural
disasters, rampant poaching and terrorism will continue to demand maritime response
and will remain critical to national security. It is important for India to create
a secure maritime environment through a strong and effective military especially
naval capability. Indian Navy today is a blue water navy with a sizable force
projection capabilities. As its capabilities get further enhanced in future, so
will its role as a net security provider in the IOR. Andaman and Nicobar
Islands provide India with potential to dominate the strategic sea lanes and choke
points in the east, and makes them a cornerstone in Indian maritime strategy.
Andaman and Nicobar Command, needs to be energised with resources to make it a
viable military outreach into the IOR. The level of synergy and jointness achieved
in the only Unified Command also has tremendous scope for improvement. In the
true spirit of the Government’s new policy of “Act East” the islands
are to be looked at as a “Spring Board” towards furthering India’s
strategic outreach in the SE Asian region. This could be the first step towards
a more robust Indian Ocean Strategy. India also needs to graduate to a maritime
power; whose components include shipbuilding industry, modern port handling facilities
and large merchant shipping fleet as all of them impinge either directly or indirectly,
on maritime security. It is said that ‘Humans always win, always get
more if they collaborate”. This is particularly valid for the IOR, which
does not have region-wide security architectures, to deal with the security risks
of the future. “The maritime domain is where the collective interests and
common security concerns of regional and extra-regional states converge. There
is a compelling, imperative need to develop maritime security cooperation in the
Indian Ocean region to address the massive human, economic, environmental, and
energy security risks of the future. However, problems posed by the suspicion
of intentions and doubts on viability of such a security structure have prevented
formation of a collective security regime”. Militarisation of IOR, proliferation
of WMDs (Weapons of Mass Destruction), rise in non-traditional threats and power
projection by extra regional powers demands greater security cooperation and enhancement
of peace and stability in the region. In conclusion, the interplay between
China, India and the US –the three pillars –would decide the reconfiguration
of geopolitics in IOR. Other major powers and littorals will also influence the
same. India needs to learn to deal with the Chinese emergence as a power, its
growth, its interest and concerns in IOR along with US rebalancing. India with
or without them must become the net security provider for the region. The
challenges are vast but then so are the opportunities presented by the emergence
of strong political leaderships in New Delhi and a rising India under new leadership
where everyone is considering it as an opportunity to interact with and cooperate
with. India will need to anticipate the ever evolving security scenario in IOR
and attempt to shape them in its favour. –
The writer is a former Commander-in-Chief of India’s Tri-Service Andaman
& Nicobar Command (ANC) | 
