Around
the Indo Pacific revolves the geopolitics of the 21st century. Thanks to the rise
of China, the region could be headed for fundamental change in power equations
and possibly towards a tense Cold War like future. Broadly, traditional security
challenges in the Indo Pacific, can be summed up as: - Chinese assertiveness
in the South China Sea, fuelling apprehension on China’s behaviour in maintaining
good order at sea.
- Emergence of Chinese naval combatants in the Indian
Ocean and their presence along proposed Maritime Silk Route in the future. China
has already declared its intent to preposition naval assets in distant regions.
l US rebalance in the Indo Pacific.
- Coming together of Russia and China
as also transfer of Russian military hardware both to China and Pakistan adding
to asymmetry in the region.
- Sale of eight or more submarines and military
aircraft by China to Pakistan.
- The Chinese hobnobbing with Sri Lanka,
Seychelles and Maldives.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
China has reclaimed roughly 800 hectares of land from nowhere in the South China
Sea. It effectively enlarges its claim of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) at the
expense of other nations in the vicinity. China may accordingly claim the right
to explore the waters for minerals and deny the same to other resident nations.
SCS is believed to have phenomenal reserves of oil and gas. The Chinese
claim to the entire SCS and its insistence for vessels of other countries to seek
their approval for passage through these waters has come as a surprise to the
world. The Chinese claim also means roadblocks to commercial activities of countries
like India who have won exploration contracts off Vietnam coast following due
process. China has also declared an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ)
over the artificially created islands around reefs, and built two runways on the
disputed Spratly islands, each 3000 metres long and capable of handling heavy
aircraft as well as fighter jets. Landing trials on these runways have been completed.
A third is under construction. The development as well as the declared
intent indicates aggressiveness. This challenges the whole system of good order
at sea. Though the Vice Chairman of the Chinese Military Commission (CMC) Fan
Changlong has said that China will not hinder passage of the sea farers, China’s
claims over some 80 per cent of the CS has rattled all its neighbours who have
challenged the Chinese claims. CHINESE NAVAL COMBATANTS
There is concern also on a second issue, that of deployment of Chinese
naval combatants in the Indian Ocean and along proposed Maritime Silk Route. Essentially,
the Silk Route will serve China’s economic interests in enabling it to dump cheap
manufactured goods in other countries, particularly those in Africa with whom
China has the fastest growing trade. Significantly, China has deployed
nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean saying they were needed to fight pirates
who use rather small boats. That has raised eyebrows and is a very hard to accept
proposition for naval tacticians. US AND CHINA
From the time the US officially announced its pivot shift to the Indo Pacific,
the Chinese are in an overdrive to get the PLA Navy to assert in the far flung
blue waters. The Military strategy paper of 2015 very clearly specifies that maritime
domain of China will now fall under the category of Strategic forces along with
nuclear, cyber and space. It states that traditional thinking of land forces
being predominant in national strategic calculus is not right, and that the focus
must shift to the maritime domain, The PLA Navy therefore has now been assigned
a strategic role. One can clearly see a future full of crowded Indo Pacific and
therefore moments of tense atmosphere. Significantly, most of the Chinese
task forces are now crossing the Mediterranean and visiting countries far beyond
the Gulf of Aden where piracy takes place. While the Maritime Silk Route will
serve China’s legitimate commercial interests, the presence of inflated naval
combatants in the Indian Ocean on the pretext of securing sea lanes for developing
trade will only create and aggravate tensions. The US, which maintains
a global naval presence, and other countries have already rejected the Chinese
declarations in this regard. The US Navy occasionally forays into, and over, the
waters claimed by China saying it is in international waters. RUSSIA
AND CHINA Russia has become assertive with the annexation of Crimea, and
also entered the fray in Syria. The Russians have turned to the Chinese for trade
and strategic interests. Military hardware and technologies are being sold to
China. And their navies exercised together in the SCS. Moscow has supplied
many weapons and systems to China, including aircraft engines for JF 17s. The
aircraft is coproduced by Pakistan, which is also now taking helicopters from
Russia. There are questions. Is a Cold War like situation emerging? Will developments
in SCS and Indo Pacific result in similar scenario at sea with the US and EU on
one side and China and Russia on the other? The Chinese build-up towards
Anti Access/ Area Denial (A2AD) and demonstration of Anti Satellite (ASAT) capability
are aimed at nations who have aircraft carriers and satellite constellations.
The US has been spending over $300 million a year for quite some to build satellite
based Directed Energy weapons mainly to be used from sea against incoming high
speeds missiles. Laser generators with 100 KW are on the verge of entering service.
Clearly, a scenario of future confrontation at sea is emerging. CHINA
AND INDIA Whatever happens, India is affected. The Chinese are building
a huge commercial port and naval base at Gwadar in Pakistan, and plans for supplying
eight Diesel Electric submarines have been announced. Pakistan’s friendship with
China is built only on an anti-India platform, and Islamabad will go to any length
to harm India through this collusion. In fact, Beijing is spending about US$ 100
billion in Pakistan to virtually acquire large tracts of the coastal belt in Gwadar
on long lease. That increases India’s vulnerability manifold even if New
Delhi does business with China and it will compel India towards higher defence
spending. India’s concerns are compounded by opacity of China. The Chinese nuclear
proliferation has made Pakistan a nuclear power. There are reports that China
is also helping Pakistan to integrate nuclear tipped missiles on their future
submarines. The smaller economies of Sri Lanka, Seychelles and Maldives
have already fallen prey to Chinese money power and will have to compensate China
else where. The debt which these island nations are accruing, will compel them
to provide berthing facilities to the Chinese naval forces in return. Notably,
the Maldives parliament had recently passed a bill which may permit China to acquire
islands as long as the investment is over $1 billion, and the development also
help reclaim at least 70 percent of the area around an island. This is
clearly tailor made for China, which has specialised in reclamation. Maldives
and India share EEZ, and any island which is leased to the Chinese in the northern
group will raise maritime security concerns for New Delhi. Effectively perhaps,
the often articulated island chain around India – the string of pearls – is being
completed by the Chinese. The increasing Chinese presence in the Indian
Ocean will stretch the Indian maritime assets towards monitoring of choke points
and Sea Lane protection. India’s primacy as a regional maritime power and net
security provider in IOR is headed for dilution by the arrival of a non resident
power. This is what New Delhi has to address along with other littoral
states having stake in the Indo Pacific. – The author
is former Commander in Chief of the Western Naval Command & Chief of the Integrated
Defence Staff. The views expressed here are personal. | 
